You are here
Error message
Warning: count(): Parameter must be an array or an object that implements Countable in bootstrap_table() (line 238 of /var/www/html/sites/all/themes/bootstrap/templates/system/table.func.php).Transformation of Ukraine’s export potential in the minds of viney: the strategic importance of agricultural trade with the EU
The article examines the transformational processes of Ukraine's export activities occurring under the influence of the full-scale war, with a particular focus on the agricultural sector and its strategic interaction with the European Union market. The key changes in the volume, geographical and commodity structure of Ukrainian exports are analyzed, and the role of the EU's trade policy in supporting Ukraine's economic resilience in the context of the war and for its subsequent post-war recovery is determined The aim of the article is to study the process of transformation of Ukraine's export potential in wartime, including an analysis of changes in its volume, geographical and commodity structure, with a special emphasis on the strategic role of agricultural trade with the European Union. The article aims to assess the effectiveness and significance of trade liberalization measures introduced by the European Union (autonomous trade measures, the "Solidarity Lanes" initiative) to compensate for losses caused by the destruction of infrastructure, the blockade of seaports, and the disruption of logistics chains. A separate task is the analysis of potential economic and social consequences for both Ukraine and the EU in the event of possible restrictions on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products by individual EU member states after the expiration of the current liberalization regime in June 2025. The study revealed potential risks associated with a possible revision of the free trade regime with the EU after June 2025 and pressure from individual countries regarding restrictions. The analysis showed that such restrictions would have extremely negative consequences for Ukraine's economy (reduction of income, financial instability, complication of recovery) and could also lead to price increases in the EU, deterioration of relations, and undermining unity in supporting Ukraine. The preservation of free trade is defined as strategically important for both parties, which will contribute to Ukraine's economic stability and global food security.
Key words: export potential, agricultural export, agro-industrial complex (AIC), European Union (EU), trade relations, trade liberalization, logistics, transformation.
REFERENCES
1. Trusova, N. V. & Stepaniuk, R. S. (2024) Eksportnyi potentsial ahrarnoho sektora Ukrainy v umovakh hlobalnoho rehuliuvannia mizhnarodnoi torhivli [Export potential of the agricultural sector of Ukraine in the context of global regulation of international trade], Modern Economics, 48(2024), pp. 137–146. Available at: https://doi.org/10.31521/modecon. V48(2024)-17 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
2. Afanasieva, O., Leonov, O. & Leonova, T. (2023) Marketynhovyi stratehichnyi analiz ahropromyslovoi haluzi Ukrainy u voiennyi chas [Marketing strategic analysis of the agro-industrial sector of Ukraine in wartime], Mekhanizm ekonomichnoho rehuliuvannia, 2(100), pp. 23–28. Available at: https://doi.org/10.32782/ mer.2023.100.04 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
3. Havkalova, N. & Denysenko, O. (2023) Intehratsiini protsesy v ahropromyslovomu kompleksi natsionalnoi ekonomiky [Integration processes in the agro-industrial complex of the national economy], Visnyk Khmelnytskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Ekonomichni nauky [Bulletin of Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic Sciences], 3(318), pp. 220–225. Available at: https://doi.org/10.31891/2307- 5740-2023-318-3-34 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
4. Boiko, V. & Boiko, L. (2022) Prodovolcha bezpeka ta ryzyky dlia ahrarnoho vyrobnytstva pid chas viiny v Ukraini [Food security and risks for agricultural production during the war in Ukraine], Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 41. Available at: https://doi. org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-41-27 (Accessed: 31March 2025).
5. Kondratiuk, O. & Stoianenko, I. (2022) Eksportnyi potentsial ahrosektora Ukrainy [Export potential of the agricultural sector of Ukraine], Scientia fructuosa, 144(4), pp. 26–51.
6. Pedos, A. S. & Prokopenko, O. V. (2023) Eksportnyi potentsial Ukrainy: sutnist ta napriamky zmitsnennia v umovakh voiennoho chasu [Export potential of Ukraine: essence and directions of strengthening in wartime] (Doctoral dissertation). Sumskyi derzhavnyi universytet.
7. Ivanov, S. V., Liashenko, V. I. & Osadcha, N. V. (2022) Stratehichni napriamy formuvannia eksportnoi stratehii Ukrainy v umovakh vidnovlennia ekonomiky [Strategic directions of forming the export strategy of Ukraine in the conditions of economic recovery], Ekonomichnyi visnyk Donbasu, 1(67), pp. 16–27. Available at: https://doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2022-1(67)- 16-27 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
8. Korshenivska, N. L., Osadchuk, I. O. & Sydorak, Ya. I. (2024) Eksportnyi potentsial ahrarnoi haluzi Ukrainy v umovakh nevyznachenosti ta ryzykiv [Export potential of the agricultural sector of Ukraine in conditions of uncertainty and risks], Podilskyi visnyk: sil’s’ke hospodarstvo, tekhnika, ekonomika [Podilian Bulletin: Agriculture, Engineering, Economics], 43, pp. 142–147. Available at: https:// doi.org/10.37406/2706-9052-2024-2.21 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
9. Mytsenko, I. M., Sukhomlyn, M. O. & Nikolaiev, I. V. (2021) Eksportnyi potentsial Ukrainy vkonteksti hlobalnykh vyklykiv: analiz tendentsii ta vyznachennia stratehichnykh priorytetiv [Export potential of Ukraine in the context of global challenges: analysis of trends and determination of strategic priorities], Zbirnyk naukovykh prats TDATU imeniDmytra Motornoho (ekonomichni nauky), 2(44). Available at: 10.31388/2519-884X-2021-44-67-76 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
10. Yarovenko, T., Litvin, Ya. & Tereshchenko, H. (2022) Rozvytok mizhnarodnoi torhivli Ukrainy v kryzovykh umovakh [Development of international trade of Ukraine in crisis conditions], Halytskyi ekonomichnyi visnyk Ternopilskoho natsionalnoho tekhnichnoho universytetu [Galician Economic Bulletin of Ternopil National Technical University], 78(5-6), pp. 174–178.
11. Maslak, O. & Yakovenko, Ya. (2020) Formuvannia konkurentnykh perevah transportnoi infrastruktury z pozytsii stratehii staloi lohistyky [Formation of competitive advantages of transport infrastructure from the standpoint of sustainable logistics
strategy], Visnyk Natsionalnoho tekhnichnoho universytetu "Kharkivskyi politekhnichnyi instytut" (ekonomichni nauky) [Bulletin of the National Technical University "Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute" (Economic Sciences)], 6, pp. 51–54.
12. Lysachenko, A. V. & Zaiats, O. I. (2023) Realizatsiia eksportnoho potentsialu Ukrainy u torhovelno-ekonomichnykh vidnosynakh z Frantsiieiu [Realization of Ukraine's export potential in trade and economic relations with France], Naukovyi visnyk Uzhhorodskoho natsionalnoho universytetu, 49, pp. 80–84.
13. Ukraine Economic Tracker (n.d.) Center for Economic Strategy. Available at: https://ces.org. ua/tracker-economy-during-the-war/ (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
14. Yak viina vplynula na ekonomiku Ukrainy. Infohrafika Kyivskoho bezpekovoho forumu (n.d.) [How the war affected the economy of Ukraine. Infographicsof the Kyiv Security Forum]. Available at: https://ksf.openukraine.org/categories/news/yak-viina-vplynula-na-ekonom... (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
15. UkraineInvest (2023) «Zavdani rosiieiu zbytky ukrainskii promyslovosti ta lohistytsi siahnuly $50 miliardiv» [The damage caused by Russia toUkrainian industry and logistics reached $50 billion]. Available at: https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/news/06-09-2023/ (Accessed: 31 March 2025)
16. Finansovo-ekonomichni naslidky viiny (n.d.) [Financial and economic consequences of thewar]. LB.ua. Available at: https://lb.ua/blog/tetiana_bohdan/550614_finansovoekonomichni_naslidki. html (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
17. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy (NBU) (n.d.) Infliatsiia pochne znizhuvatysia v nastupnomu rotsi [Inflation will begin to decline next year]. Available at: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/inflyatsiya-pochne-znijuvatisya-v-nastupnomu-rotsi-a-ekonomika-y-nadali-zrostatime-inflyatsi yniy-zvit-nbu (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
18. Reuters (2023) Transport difficulties led to 7% drop in Ukraine food exports - institute. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/transport-difficulties-led-7-drop-u... (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
19. Ekzport z Ukrainy pid chas viiny: yak zminylas struktura postachan ukrainskoi produktsii za kordon (2022) [Exports from Ukraine during the war: how the structure of Ukrainian product supplies abroad has changed]. Ekonomichna Pravda. Available at: https://www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2022/10/24/692959/ (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
20. Kyiv School of Economics (n.d.) Ohliad zbytkiv ta vtrat v APK [Overview of damages and losses in the agro-industrial complex]. Available at:https://kse.ua/ua/oglyad-zbitkiv-ta-vtrat-v-apk/ (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
21. Zawojska, A., & Siudek, T. (2024). European union-ukraine agricultural trade during therusso-ukrainian war: a political economy perspective. Annals of the Polish Association of Agriculturaland Agribusiness Economists. Available at: https:// doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0054.4324 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
22. Chai, L., Liu, A., Li, X., Guo, Z., He, W., Huang, J., … Liu, J. (2024). Telecoupled impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war on global cropland expansion and biodiversity. Nature Sustainability, 7(4), 432–441. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024- 01292-z (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
23. Lin, F., Li, X., Jia, N., Feng, F., Huang, H., Huang, J., … Song, X. P. (2023). The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security. Global Food Security, 36. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j. gfs.2022.100661 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
24. Zhang, Q., Yang, K., Hu, Y., Jiao, J., & Wang, S. (2023). Unveiling the impact of geopolitical conflict on oil prices: A case study of the Russia-Ukraine War and its channels. Energy Economics, 126. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106956(Accessed: 31 March 2025).
25. Rabbi, M. F., Ben Hassen, T., El Bilali, H.,Raheem, D., & Raposo, A. (2023, March 1). FoodSecurity Challenges in Europe in the Context of the Prolonged Russian–Ukrainian Conflict. Sustainability (Switzerland). Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/ su15064745 (Accessed: 31 March 2025).
Attachment | Size |
---|---|
![]() | 560.54 KB |