You are here
Methodological approaches to the research of crisis phenomena in the activities of agricultural enterprises
The article systematizes methodological approaches to the study of crisis phenomena in the activities of agricultural enterprises and proposes a substantiated algorithm for their study under poly-crisis conditions. It is argued that war as a crisis factor in the country reduces the ability of agricultural enterprises to resist climate change, and the inconsistencies of the land market make it difficult to attract capital to overcome the consequences of the first two, which creates a vicious circle of vulnerability. The peculiarities of agricultural production are systematized, the non-consideration of which leads to the fact that standard risk diagnostic models give incorrect results when used in agriculture.
Theoretical approaches to understanding the crisis in agriculture, which is the result of a complex interaction of three types of cycles: general economic, natural-biological and institutional, are summarized, based on which it is concluded that the analysis of crises in agriculture requires the use of a synthetic approach.
It is substantiated that an effective system of early warning of crises should be hierarchical and multidimensional, which will facilitate the establishment of monitoring not only of financial results, which are late indicators that show an existing problem, but also of operational and external signals that are leading indicators. A comparative analysis of methods groups for studying crisis phenomena in agricultural enterprises, quantitative, qualitative, integrated and specific, is carried out, on the basis of which their advantages and disadvantages in practical use in monitoring are determined.
It is proved that effective research of crisis phenomena in modern agricultural enterprises requires the rejection of highly specialized approaches in favor of an integrated methodology that involves the combination of existing research methods for assessing complex and stochastic processes. It is concluded that the specifics of agricultural production require mandatory adaptation of crisis system assessment indicators and its supplementation with non-financial indicators that perform the function of early warning.
A comprehensive algorithm for studying crisis phenomena is proposed, consisting of six stages (monitoring, diagnostics, analysis of causes, forecasting, development of scenarios, formation of a basis for decisions), which will ensure the creation of a proactive anti-crisis management system at an agricultural enterprise. Measures are justified to create a basis for systematic crisis monitoring and making informed management decisions in agricultural enterprises based on the creation of a manager's "information panel", diversification of economic activity, and stress testing of the enterprise's business model.
Keywords: crisis, monitoring, strategic analysis, agricultural enterprise, qualitative and quantitative methods, integrated methods.
https://orcid.org/0009-0004-5119-17481. Natsionalnyi instytut stratehichnykh doslidzhen. Instytut klimatychno oriientovanoho silskoho hospodarstva. Perspektyvy rozvytku ahrarnoho sektora Ukrainy v umovakh klimatychnykh zmin [National Institute for Strategic Studies. Institute for Climate-Sensitive Agriculture. Prospects for the Development of the Agricultural Sector of Ukraine in the Context of Climate Change]. Available at: https://doi.org/10.53679/NISS-analytrep.2024.09
2. Lapchynskyi, V. V., Lakusta A. A., Khmelianchyshyn Yu. V. (2024). Vplyv klimatychnykh zmin na ahronomiiu: otsinka ta zakhody adaptatsii [The Impact of Climate Change on Agronomy: Assessment and Adaptation Measures]. Tavriiskyi naukovyi visnyk [Tavria Scientific Bulletin]. No. 137. Pp. 516-524. Available at: https://doi.org/10.32782/2226-0099.2024.137.60
3. Gustafson Sara. AMIS sees strong potential staple crop production in 2025, but trade, climate uncertainties remain. Food Security Portal. Available at: https://www.foodsecurityportal.org/node/3648 (accessed September 21, 2025).
4. Kernasiuk, Yu., Haidenko, O. (2025). Tsiny, vytraty y koniunktura vrozhaiu 2025 roku [Prices, costs and conditions of the harvest in 2025]. Ahronomiia sohodni [Agronomy today]. Available at: https://agronomy.com.ua/statti/3754-tsiny-vytraty-ikoniunktura-vrozhaiu-2025-roku.html
5. Kyivska shkola ekonomiky. Zvit pro nepriami finansovi vtraty ekonomiky vnaslidok viiskovoi ahresii [Kyiv School of Economics. Report on indirect financial losses of the economy as a result of military aggression]. 2024. Available at: https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/30.09.24_Losses_Report-ua.pdf
6. Vidkryttia rynku zemli dlia yurosib maie perevahy i dlia fermeriv, i dlia kholdynhiv [Opening the land market to legal entities has advantages for both farmers and holdings]. Available at: https://superagronom.com/news/18281-vidkrittya-rinku-zemlidlya-yurosib-maye-perevagi-i-dlya-fermeriv-i-dlyaholdingiv
7. Zamuruieva, I. (2024). Zemelna reforma ta silske hospodarstvo v Ukraini pid chas viiny [Land reform and agriculture in Ukraine during the war]. Available at: https://commons.com.ua/uk/zemelnareforma-v-ukrayini-pid-chas-vijni/deter... nestabilnosti v ahrarnomu sektoriUkrainy [Analysis of the determinants of instability in the agricultural sector of Ukraine].Ahrosvit[Agrosvit]. Pp. 155-161. No.11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6792.2025.11.155
9. Minaiev, D. O. (2023). Vplyv haluzevykh osoblyvostei ahrodiialnosti na didzhytalizatsiiu [The influence of sectoral features of agricultural activity on digitalization]. Tsentralnoukrainskyi naukovyi visnyk [Central Ukrainian Scientific Bulletin]. Issue 9 (42). Pp. 173-185. Available at: https://economics.kntu.kr.ua/pdf/9(42)/20.pdf
10. Kalashnikova, L. V. (2017). Spivvidnoshennia poniat «nevyznachenist», «ryzyk», «vyklyk», «zahroza», «nebezpeka» u konteksti sotsiolohii bezpeky zhyttiediialnosti [The relationship between the concepts of «uncertainty», «risk», «challenge», «threat», «danger» in the context of the sociology of life safety]. Hrani х Grani]. No. 5. Pp. 16-23. Available at: http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Grani_2017_20_5_5
11. Kolodii, I. V., Kolodii, A.V. (2023). Antykryzove upravlinnia v silskohospodarskykh pidpryiemstvakh: monohrafiia [Anti-crisis management in agricultural enterprises: monograph]. Lviv. 228 p. Available at: https://repository.lnup.edu.ua/jspui/bitstream/123456789/1806/1/%D0%9.pdf
12. Mykhailov, V., Kulynych, R. (2023). Sotsialno-ekonomichni tsykly: teoretychna interpretatsiia ta statystychne otsiniuvannia [Socio-economic cycles: theoretical interpretation and statistical evaluation]. Herald of Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic Sciences. Issue 324(6). Pp. 413-423. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2023-324-6-65
13. Bilochenko, A. V. (2021). Teoretyko-metodolohichni pidkhody do rozrobky instytutsionalnoi modeli finansovoho zabezpechennia ahrarnoho sektoru [Theoretical and methodological approaches to the development of an institutional model of financial support for the agricultural sector]. Ekonomika APK [Economics of the Agricultural Industry]. No 2. Vol. 28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202102092
14. Nehodenko, V. (2024). Zastosuvannia matematychnoi teorii katastrof dlia zabezpechennia stiikosti systemy upravlinnia informatsiinoiu bezpekoiu [Application of mathematical theory of catastrophes to ensure the stability of the information security management system]. Elektronne fakhove naukove vydannia «Kiberbezpeka: osvita, nauka, tekhnika» [Electronic professional scientific publication «Cybersecurity: education, science, technology». No. 2(26). Pp. 212–222. DOI: https://doi.org/10.28925/2663-4023.2024.26.692
15. Hryhorian, R. Kh. (2023). Osoblyvosti proiavu ryzykiv u diialnosti silskohospodarskykh pidpryiemstv v umovakh nevyznachenosti [Peculiarities of the manifestation of risks in the activities of agricultural enterprises under conditions of uncertainty]. Ekonomika ta upravlinnia APK [Economics and Management of the Agricultural Industry]. No. 1. Pp. 111-123. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33245/2310-9262-181-1-111-123
16. Kolmakova, O., Khalina, V., Ustilovska, A. (2024). Alhorytm provedennia diahnostyky kryzovykh yavyshch na rannikh stadiiakh yak chastyna mekhanizmu zabezpechennia ekonomichnoi bezpeky pidpryiemstva [Algorithm for diagnosing crisis phenomena at early stages as part of the mechanism for ensuring the economic security of an enterprise]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo [Economy and Society]. Issue (63). DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2024-63-6
17. Pilko, A., Vitovska, A. (2024). Prohnozuvannia zmin finansovo-hospodarskoho stanu pidpryiemstva [Forecasting changes in the financial and economic condition of an enterprise]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo [Economy and Society]. Issue. (61). DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2024-61-53
18. Yurchenko, I., Khodakivska, O., Martyniuk, M. (2025). Prohnozuvannia tsin na silskohospodarski zemli V Ukraini za dopomohoiu hlybokykh neironnykh merezh LSTM [Forecasting agricultural land prices in Ukraine using deep LSTM neural networks]. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal [Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal]. Vol. 11. No. 1. Available at: https://are-journal.com/are/article/download/973/481
19. Nepran, A., Hirzheva, O., Birchenko, N., Khloponina-Hnatenko, O. (2022). Vykorystannia metodu koreliatsiino-rehresiinoho analizu dlia rozrakhunku preiskurantiv [Using the correlation-regression analysis method to calculate price lists]. Financial and credit activity problems of theory and practice [Financial and credit activity problems of theory and practice]. Issue 3(44). Pp. 92-99. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.3.44.2022.3691
20. Vintoniak, A., Chubai, V. (2024). Metodyky analizu zahrozy bankrutstva pidpryiemstv ta chynnyky vplyvu na zminu yii rivnia [Methods of analyzing the threat of bankruptcy of enterprises and factors influencing the change in its level]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo [Economy and Society]. Issue. (61). DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2024-61-45
21. Vovchak, O., Kulyniak, I., Halkiv, L., Pavlyshyn, M., Horbenko, T. (2021). Udoskonalennia diahnostyky kryzy na pidpryiemstvi: finansovo-ekonomichnyi zriz [Improving the diagnosis of the crisis at the enterprise: financial and economic section]. Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice. Issue. 3(38). Pp. 292–303. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v3i38.237459
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
 ekon_2_2025_12_152-164.pdf | 671.2 KB |