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Climate and security challenges for the development of Ukrainian regions: integration of a risk-based approach in public management
The article investigates the impact of climate change and military security challenges on the regional development of Ukraine, with a particular focus on the rural territories of Mykolaiv Oblast. The relevance of this issue is driven by the intensification of extreme climatic events, degradation of natural resources, and destruction of infrastructure caused by military operations, which creates fundamentally new challenges for the public administration system and requires the development of adequate management mechanisms. The subject of the study is the theoretical, methodological, and applied foundations for integrating a risk-oriented approach into the practice of public administration of regional development under the dual pressure of climatic and security threats. The purpose of the article is to develop and substantiate a comprehensive approach to assessing, managing, and institutionally integrating climate and security risks of regional development in Ukraine, using Mykolaiv Oblast as a case study. The methodological basis combines quantitative and qualitative methods: time series analysis for identifying temperature trends, geoinformation analysis of satellite data from MODIS (MOD11A2) and TerraClimate datasets processed on the Google Earth Engine platform. The CAVER + SHOCK method is applied for a comprehensive threat assessment, evaluating risks by criteria of criticality, vulnerability, magnitude of impact, accessibility, recoverability, and suddenness of occurrence. Based on satellite data analysis for 2015-2024, a persistent trend of increasing land surface temperature by 1.3-1.8°C was identified, along with increased frequency of extreme temperatures above 40°C and growing aridity. A five-stage model for integrating the risk-oriented approach into the regional public administration system was developed, covering monitoring, assessment, institutional integration, implementation of adaptive measures, and evaluation. Organizational and legal mechanisms for implementing the model and key digital decision-support tools are substantiated.
Keywords: climate change, public governance, risk-oriented approach, rural areas, risk management, sustainability, extreme heat, security risks, adaptation, regional development policy
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