You are here
Forecasting the volume of foreign direct investment in Ukraine’s agricultural sector based on polynomial regression
The article presents a scientifically grounded medium-term forecast of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the agricultural sector of Ukraine for 2025–2027, using second-degree polynomial regression and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA (1,1,1)). The study takes into account the complex and nonlinear dynamics of investment flows, the inertia of processes, and the influence of external and internal factors. To improve the accuracy of the forecast, adjusted statistical data for 2014–2024 were used, excluding anomalous periods that could distort the modeling results.
The calculations indicate a moderate growth in FDI in 2025–2027 (USD 3,245.3 million in 2025, USD 3,300.0 million in 2026, and USD 3,350.0 million in 2027), reflecting a gradual recovery of investment activity and stabilization of macroeconomic conditions. The model demonstrates an acceptable level of predictive accuracy based on MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and WAPE indicators, while the absence of residual autocorrelation confirms its adequacy.
The results highlight the need to strengthen state policy to enhance the investment attractiveness of the agricultural sector, in particular through infrastructure development, reduction of regulatory pressure, provision of legal protection for investors, and activation of international support. It is concluded that the proposed model is suitable for forming a baseline forecast scenario in conditions of high variability in the investment environment. The findings can be utilized by public authorities, research institutions, and investment analysts for making informed management decisions in the economic development of agriculture.
Keywords: foreign direct investment, agricultural sector, polynomial regression, forecast, trend model, Ukraine, investment climate.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4253-86961. Smirna O.V., Biloshavina D.I. Self-Financing of an Enterprise: Essence and Significance in Modern Conditions.The IV International Scientific and Practical Conference «Trends in the Development of Science as the Main Way to Replace Old Technologies», January 27–29, 2025, Plovdiv, Bulgaria. Рр. 64-67. URL:https://eu-conf.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TRENDS-IN-THE-DEVELOPMENT-OF-SCIENCE-AS-THE-MAIN-WAY-TOREPLACE-OLD-TECHNOLOGIES.pdf
2. Savitska, S., Zaika, S., Svystun, L., Koval, L., Haibura, Y. (2020). Investytsiine zabezpechennia staloho rozvytku silskykh terytorii v Ukraini [Investment providing sustainable development of rural areas in Ukraine]. Independent Journal of Management & Production. Vol. 11. No. 8. Pp. 571–586.
3. Yurchuk, N. P., Kiporenko, S. S. (2020). Priami inozemni investytsii: otsinka zaluchennia v ekonomiku Ukrainy [Foreign direct investment: assessment of involvement in the economy of Ukraine]. Slovak International Scientific Journal, Vol. 3. No. 40, Pp. 62–71.
4. Lohosha, R. V., Polishchuk, O. A., Diachenko, M. V. (2023). Napriamy aktyvizatsii investytsiinoi diialnosti v sferi silskoho hospodarstva v umovakh voiennoho stanu y postvoiennoho vidnovlennia [Directions for intensifying investment activity in the agricultural sector under martial law and postwarrecovery]. Formuvannia rynkovykh vidnosyn v Ukraini, No. 12 (271). Pp. 57–65. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10664441.
5. Tarasova, O. S. (2023). Formuvannia investytsiinoi infrastruktury v systemi ekoloho-oriientovanoho ekonomichnoho zrostannia [Formation of investment infrastructure in the system of ecologically-oriented economic growth]. Modeling the Development of the Economic Systems. No. 1. Pp. 121–127. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31891/mdes/2023-7-17.
6. Azarova, A., Yelisieieva, O., Nikiforova, L., Khymych, V. (2025). Koreliatsiino-rehresiine modeliuvannia vplyvu eksportu, importu ta indeksu infliatsii na riven VVP Ukrainy [Correlation-regression modeling of the impact of export, import and inflation index on Ukraine’s GDP]. Innovation and Sustainability. No. 4. Pp. 43–54. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31649/ins.2024.4.43.54.
7. Babets, I. (2023). Modeliuvannia vplyvu priamykh inozemnykh investytsii na ekonomiku Ukrainy v umovakh povojennoi vidbudovy [Modeling the impact of foreign direct investment on Ukraine’s economy during post-war recovery]. Halytskyi Ekonomichnyi Visnyk. No. 1(80). DOI: https://doi.org/10.33108/galicianvisnyk_tntu2023.0.
8. Kozak, Yu. H. (2019). Determinanty priamykh inozemnykh investytsii: ekonometrychnyi pidkhid [Determinants of foreign direct investment: econometric approach]. Vcheni zapysky Universytetu “KROK”. No. 1(53). Pp. 46–53. Available at: https://journals.uran.ua/vsed_oneu/article/view/168781/168649.
9. Mykhailova, L. (2013). Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine: Institutional Challenges and Prospects for Growth. Available at: https://core.ac.uk/reader/46594170.
10. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. Ofitsiinyi sait [Official website]. Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua.
11. Dolinskyi, L. B., Rybachok, O. S. (2016). Koreliatsiino-rehresiinyi analiz investytsiinoi pryvablyvosti APK [Correlation-regression analysis of the investment attractiveness of the agro-industrial complex]. Ekonomichnyi analiz: zbirnyk naukovykh prats, Ternopilskyi natsionalnyi ekonomichnyi universytet. Vol. 24. No. 1. Pp. 30–37.
12. Pankova, L. I., Kamalova-Kutynets, O. M. (2022). Analiz tendentsii ta perspektyv zaluchennia inozemnykh investytsii v umovakh ekonomiky viiny [Analysis of trends and prospects for attracting foreign investment under wartime economy]. Problemy suchasnykh transformatsii. Seriia: Ekonomika ta upravlinnia. No. 6. Available at: https://reicst.com.ua/pmt/article/view/2022-6-03-02/
13. Voloshchuk, Y. O., Ivanyshyn, S. V., Bohachyk, S. V. (2020). Tendentsii inozemnoho investuvannia pidpryiemstv ahrarnoho sektoru ekonomiky [Trends in foreign investment in enterprises of the agricultural sector]. Derzhava ta rehiony. Seriia: Ekonomika ta pidpryiemnytstvo. No. 2. Pp. 95–100.
14. Davydenko, N. M. (2015). Zaluchennia inozemnykh investytsii v ahrarnyi sektor ekonomiky Ukrainy [Attracting foreign investment in the agricultural sector of Ukraine’s economy]. Naukovyi visnyk Uzhhorodskoho universytetu. Seriia: Ekonomika. Vol. 1. No. 1. Pp. 124–127.
15. Patyka, N. I. (2018). Inozemni investytsii v silskomu hospodarstvi Ukrainy: suchasnyi stan ta vplyv na yoho rozvytok [Foreign investment in agriculture in Ukraine: current state and impact on its development]. Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid. No. 5. Pp. 26–31.
16. Chkan, O. I. (2020). Inozemni investytsii v ahrarnyi sektor Ukrainy: stan i aspekty rozvytku [Foreign investment in Ukraine’s agrarian sector: state and development aspects]. Biznes Inform. No. 2. Pp. 95–100.
17. Boiko, T., Boiko, P., et al. (2021). Theoretical foundations of engineering. Tasks and problems: collective monograph. Boston: International Science Group, Primedia eLaunch. 485 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46299/ISG.2021.MONO.TECH.III
18. Maslii, V. V., Berezka, K. M. (2017). Vybir ta otsinka ARIMA-modeli dlia prohnozuvannia obsiagiv priamykh inozemnykh investytsii [Selection and evaluation of ARIMA model for forecasting volumes of foreign direct investments]. Naukovyi visnyk Mizhnarodnoho humanitarnoho universytetu. Issue 24, part 2. Pp. 115–119.
19. Kovel, P. M. (2024). Analiz nadkhodzhennia priamykh inozemnykh investytsii v Ukrainu [Analysis of foreign direct investment inflows to Ukraine]. Biznes Inform. No. 3. p. 87. Available at: http://www.business-inform.net
20. Liakhova, O. O., Hura, N. S. (2022). Prohnozuvannia potoku priamykh inozemnykh investytsii v Ukrainu [Forecasting the flow of foreign direct investments to Ukraine]. Efektyvna ekonomika. No. 5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2307-2105.2022.5
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
 ekon_2_2025_6_79-85.pdf | 576.12 KB |